Market Updates.
- We’ve been encouraged by recent economic forecasts and numbers that indicate a softer overall inflationary impact.
- The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, and U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose to 199,000 in November, a slight increase from the payroll gain of 150,000 in October.
- The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% over last month and is up 3.1% from a year ago. Wholesale prices remained unchanged in November, which is also an encouraging inflation indicator.
- As we approach 2024, there is some optimism in the housing market — even though housing prices are still high and supply is difficult, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 7.07%, the lowest rate since July. Over the past week, mortgage applications increased by 7.4% and refinance applications increased by 19%.
- In the December meeting, the Federal Reserve opted not to raise interest rates, remaining within the 5.25%–5.5% target range. Projections released by the Fed indicate an expectation of four rate cuts in 2024, aiming for the goal of a 4.6% rate by the end of 2024.
- The Fed also shared an encouraging core personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE) forecast indicating a decline of 2.4% in 2024 and 2.2% by 2025 to reach their 2% target in 2026. Previous forecasts indicated a decrease of 2.6% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.
- We are wishing you a very Happy Holiday season and a prosperous New Year!
Sources
- U.S. payrolls rose 199,000 in November, unemployment rate falls to 3.7%
- S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Economic News Release Consumer Price Index Summary
- Fed lowers inflation forecast for 2024, seeing core PCE falling to 2.4%
- Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024
- Wholesale prices held flat in November, providing another encouraging inflation signal
- Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey
- Mortgage refinance demand jumps 19% after rates hit lowest level since July
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