- Overall, the economy continues to be strong and resilient.
- A recent Jobs Report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 339,000 jobs added and that the unemployment rate rose to 3.7%. It is interesting to note that the jobless rate is both the highest it’s been since October 2022 and near the lowest since 1969.
- The U.S. Debt Ceiling deal was reached, which includes suspending a limit until 2025 and an increase in the debt ceiling.
- The Stock Market has seen some successes recently, notably in the tech sector. The NASDAQ has now been on the rise for six consecutive weeks.
- With inflation still higher than desired, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates again in July.
- Despite the increase of interest rates ten time over the last year, consumers seem to be optimistic based on spending reports.
- We still haven’t seen a marked increase in gas prices, though they may go up later this summer. Saudi Arabia announced a plan to cut oil output in July, which could potentially affect prices.
As these updates indicate, the economy is not always predictable. If you’ve been keeping up with “Ask Triangle” on a monthly basis, you’ve likely noticed a few unexpected outcomes from previous predictions. That’s why our team places value on diversified portfolios, which helps us to proactively manage risk and increase stability in a volatile market.
Ask Triangle Question
Q: Are there any updates to you’re hearing about a recession, such as timing and depth?
A: Based on May meeting minutes from the Federal Reserving, a recession is still anticipated sometime in the fall or early winter. Fortunately, it is expected to be a shallow recession. It’s worth noting that the timing of when the recession is expected continues to be pushed further into the future. The uncertainty around timing is likely related to the surprisingly resilient market and consumer optimism, despite inflation and the constant interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve.
In preparation for the possibility of a recession, let us know if you’d like to re-evaluate any or all of the following:
- Cash-flow needs and distribution methods
- Emergency savings, and how to build some
- Other concerns around financial stability in an uncertain economic outlook
Our goal as your financial advisory team is to help you navigate uncertain times like these. Please don’t hesitate to reach out to us for any reason or concern!
- Here’s where the jobs are for May 2023 — in one chart
- Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates
- Oil steadies as Saudi cut supports and focus turns to Fed
- Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, May 2–3, 2023
- The market may be primed for the Dow to lead with the debt ceiling resolved
Join us for the next Ask Triangle on Friday, July 7th!
Securities and Advisory Services offered through Harbour Investments, Inc. Member SIPC & FINRA.