- The current U.S. economy is doing well with unemployment at a 50 to 60-year low and strong consumer spending. Manufacturing numbers are stagnant, supply-chain issues are freeing up and gas prices remain in a neutral price range.
- However, consumer trepidation toward the stock market has caused continued stock market contraction. Despite a stable economy, U.S. consumers remain cautious and are taking a more conservative approach. Assumptions are that the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates, perpetuating decreased bond valuation.
- Continued volatility in the stock market is headlining media and political news.
- Our research partners continue to push back timeline expectations for an economic recession, now anticipating a market swing in late 2023.
- Money Markets and CDs continue to have high interest rates, and fixed annuity products have very slow processing times due to an influx in banking business. If you have concerns about this, please give us a call or come visit to discuss. We are always available to help you assess fees and terms for any financial product(s) you may be considering.
- Unfortunately, we anticipate rising gas prices over the summer—up to $4-$4.50. Take these increases into consideration when creating your summer budget!
Ask Triangle Questions
Q: Why are gas prices predicted to rise again this summer?
A: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which supplies our gas, will decrease production in an effort to keep gas prices above the $80-$90 price point. This is due to a few factors: China re-opening and the increase in both competition and travel during summer months.
Q: What can be expected as far as the depth of a potential recession?
A: We expect the recession to be shallow, but it may also last for a longer time period. Despite contractions that began 12 months ago, the economy has remained resilient, so we don’t anticipate a recession as deep as the one we experienced in 2008.
Q: Can you explain a Charles Schwab stock report?
A: There are different ways to analyze a stock’s value, including tactical analysis and fundamental analysis.
Tactical analysis is not something our team does, but some of our research partners, like First Trust, provide it. Tactical analysis looks at data and algorithms, also referred to as algorithmic trading, which is similar to day trading with buy and sell triggers.
Fundamental analysis, the method Charles Schwab stock reports utilize, is a comprehensive look at anything that can affect a stock’s value. Fundamental analysis considers Beta (relative volatility compared to the Stock Market), dividends, price performance earnings, price history and the financial health of a company.
– A Beta of one means that the stock has similar volatility to the market index (e.g. a Beta of less than one in the S&P 500 equates to the stock being less volatile than the market index.) A low Beta is ideal when combined with a high dividend.
– Price performance is how the fund has performed and how it compares to its peers.
At Triangle Financial Services, we tend to enjoy mutual funds versus individual stocks because there is less volatility. We use fundamental analysis because we are always looking at the big picture for our clients—both short- and long-term goals. We are invested in the long-term outlook of your future, so we‘re unwilling to gamble with your hard-earned money and financial goals.
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- Learn How to Read Stock Quotes
Friday April 7th Ask Triangle: ETFs and Mutual Funds
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Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.