Market Updates
- According to the recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Summery for April, the economy continues to be strong with unemployment low at 3.4% and job growth reaching 253,000. In particular, the leisure and hospitality industry has seen an upward trend in employment as consumers spend more on travel and hotel stays, also a positive sign for the current economy.
- The Federal Reserve again raised interest rates in April from 5% to 5.25%. In June, rates are likely to rise again in an effort to decrease inflation from the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report of 5% down to 2%.
- On May 9, Federal Reserve President John Williams spoke to the New York Economic Club sharing that interest rates may continue to rise and that getting the CPI back to 2% could take as long as two years.
- While there are still conflicting opinions, there is a general consensus that some level of recession can be expected by fall. Considering continued job growth and economic resilience despite increasing inflation and interest rates, a recession is likely to be smaller in scale.
- Surprisingly, oil prices are lower than expected despite supply cuts by OPEC+ producers. This is considered to be due in part to lower demand as China reopens their oil production. However, warmer summer weather typically increases travel and demand, which will likely result in higher gas prices.
Sources
- The Employment Situation – April 2023
- Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
- Consumer Price Index Summary – 2023 M03 Results
- A ‘mild’ recession is now likely this year, Federal Reserve says
- Wall Street predicted a big surge for oil this year. But prices are now lower
- Fed’s John Williams says it will ‘take time’ before inflation gets back to 2% target
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