Our latest discussion covered financial forecasting, the impact of tariffs, interest rates, and sector performance. Below are the key takeaways:

1. Macroeconomic Outlook & Forecasting

  • All insights were for educational purposes, not prescriptive financial advice.
  • Forecasts should come from diverse sources since markets price in expected corporate earnings and macroeconomic factors.
  • The current administration and global economic shifts play a role in shaping market trends.
  • (https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/us-stock-market-outlook)

2. Sector Performance Insights

  • The tech sector had an outstanding year, but heavy AI investments are straining profitability.
  • Rising energy costs for data centers and global environmental concerns could impact long-term growth.

3. Tech Sector & S&P 500 Analysis

  • A few large stocks drove much of the S&P 500’s gains.
  • There are concerns about overvaluation and potential pullbacks, particularly after consecutive 20% annual gains.

4. Diversification Strategy

  • Given the likelihood of uneven sector performance under the current administration, diversification remains critical for managing volatility.

5. Tariffs & Their Effects

  • Interest rate forecasts and potential tariff changes were key topics.
  • Tariffs could lead to short-term inflation as importers pass higher costs to consumers.
  • While tariffs may temporarily raise prices, businesses often find ways to adjust within months.

6. Interest Rates & Housing Market Trends

7. 401(k) to Roth IRA Conversions

8. ESG & Environmental Factors

  • Some ESG-related incentives are being rolled back, but sectors like electric vehicles remain strong due to corporate investment in sustainable technologies.

Securities and Advisory Services offered through Harbour Investments, Inc. Member SIPC & FINRA.

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Lifestyle considerations in creating your retirement portfolio.

Most portfolios are constructed based on an individual’s investment objective, risk tolerance, and time horizon.

Using these inputs and sophisticated portfolio-optimization calculations, most investors can feel confident that they own a well-diversified portfolio, appropriately positioned to pursue their long-term goals.1
However, as a retiree, how you choose to live in retirement may be an additional factor to consider when building your portfolio.

Starting a Business?

Using retirement funds to start a business entails significant risk. If you choose this path, you may want to consider reducing the risk level of your investment portfolio to help compensate for the risk you’re assuming with a new business venture.

Since a new business is unlikely to generate income right away, you may want to construct your portfolio with an income orientation in order to provide you with current income until the business can begin turning a profit.

Traveling for Extended Periods of Time?

There are a number of good reasons to consider using a professional money manager for your retirement savings. Add a new one. If you are considering extended travel that may keep you disconnected from current events (even modern communication), investing in a portfolio of individual securities that requires constant attention may not be an ideal approach. For this lifestyle, professional management may suit your retirement best.2

Rethink Retirement Income?

Market volatility can undermine your retirement-income strategy. While it may come at the expense of some opportunity cost, there are products and strategies that may protect you from drawing down on savings when your portfolio’s value is falling—a major cause of failed income approaches.

1. Diversification and portfolio optimization calculations are approaches to help manage investment risk. They do not eliminate the risk of loss if security prices decline.
2. Keep in mind that the return and principal value of security prices will fluctuate as market conditions change. And securities, when sold, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Individuals cannot invest directly in an index.
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG, LLC, is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright FMG Suite.

Check out this brief article which explores the role Money Market Funds may play in your portfolio.

A money market fund, not to be confused with a money market account, is a type of mutual fund that invests in instruments like cash equivalents and short-term debt-based securities, which can also include U.S. Treasury Bonds.1

Safety First

These funds are designed to be easily accessible and are often considered cash equivalents. Their primary role in a portfolio is to preserve capital while maintaining liquidity. Financial professionals use them as a place to hold cash for an investor or as a place to “park cash” temporarily while they evaluate new investments. In fact, the core value of money market funds lies in their stability and liquidity, making them one place where investors can build an emergency fund.2

Asset Value

Money held in money market funds is not insured or guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or any other government agency. Money market funds seek to preserve the value of your investment at $1.00 a share. However, it is possible to lose money by investing in a money market fund.

Money market mutual funds are sold by prospectus. Please consider the charges, risks, expenses, and investment objectives carefully before investing. A prospectus containing this and other information about the investment company can be obtained from your financial professional. Read it carefully before you invest or send money.

Preserving Capital

Money market funds can play a role in an investor’s portfolio by providing a high-liquidity, low-risk investment choice that is designed to preserve capital. They can play a central role in managing an investment portfolio.2

1. Medicare.gov, 2023
2. Medicare.gov, 2023
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG, LLC, is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright FMG Suite.

Market Updates.

  • We’ve been encouraged by recent economic forecasts and numbers that indicate a softer overall inflationary impact.
  • The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, and U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose to 199,000 in November, a slight increase from the payroll gain of 150,000 in October.
  • The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% over last month and is up 3.1% from a year ago. Wholesale prices remained unchanged in November, which is also an encouraging inflation indicator.
  • As we approach 2024, there is some optimism in the housing market — even though housing prices are still high and supply is difficult, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 7.07%, the lowest rate since July. Over the past week, mortgage applications increased by 7.4% and refinance applications increased by 19%.
  • In the December meeting, the Federal Reserve opted not to raise interest rates, remaining within the 5.25%–5.5% target range. Projections released by the Fed indicate an expectation of four rate cuts in 2024, aiming for the goal of a 4.6% rate by the end of 2024.
  • The Fed also shared an encouraging core personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE) forecast indicating a decline of 2.4% in 2024 and 2.2% by 2025 to reach their 2% target in 2026. Previous forecasts indicated a decrease of 2.6% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.
  • We are wishing you a very Happy Holiday season and a prosperous New Year!

Sources

 

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Securities and Advisory Services offered through Harbour Investments, Inc. Member SIPC & FINRA.

Market Updates.

  • While we have observed some unexpected fluctuations in the economy recently, they don’t appear to be extreme, and the economy remains resilient and strong.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics October report showed a cool down as U.S. nonfarm payrolls only increased by 150,000, less than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%.
  • The October Consumer Price Index, which measures consumer price changes over time (excluding food and energy) was lower than anticipated with a two-year low of 4%.
  • This month, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by almost 9 basis points, and the 2-year Treasury yield has fallen nearly 10 basis points.
  • We saw an 0.8% decrease in import prices, along with a 0.5% decline for the Producer Price Index in October, the biggest drop since April 2020.
  • Although the Federal Reserve opted not to raise interest rates in October, and it is encouraging to see the pace of inflation begin to slow, the Fed is still committed to enforcing a restrictive monetary policy through rate increases to achieve a decreased 2% inflation rate.
  • Despite decreases in the jobs market, the potential slowing of inflation and interest rate hikes encourages us. No matter what, we won’t leave your financials up to chance or wait to see what the market does tomorrow. The Triangle Financial team always takes a long-game perspective, so you can rest assured we keep your future security in focus.

Sources

 

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Securities and Advisory Services offered through Harbour Investments, Inc. Member SIPC & FINRA.

Market Updates.

Overall, the U.S. economy continues to be resilient.

  • Recent market fluctuation may be linked to the September jobs report, which was unexpectedly positive. Payrolls and hourly earnings increased, and the unemployment rate is slightly lower than expected. Job growth continues in the leisure and hospitality industries.
  • Although the Federal Reserve didn’t raise interest rates in September, we still anticipate additional rate increases before year end.
  • Consumers are selling out of long-term treasury bonds for liquidity, which makes sense with the 10-year treasury yield climbing to 4.88%. This is close to the level it was prior to the 2008 financial crisis.
  • Economists continue to push out the timeline for when a recession could occur. That, combined with the fact that the only thing that’s been consistent with the market is that it’s unpredictable, means we can’t forecast for certain how the market will perform tomorrow.
  • At Triangle Financial, we focus on a long-game perspective. Instead of making decisions based on what we think may happen tomorrow, we plan according to what we know right now. That way, you can rest assured that we are always keeping our eye on your future financial security.

Sources

Join us for the next Ask Triangle!

Securities and Advisory Services offered through Harbour Investments, Inc. Member SIPC & FINRA.

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