Market Updates

  • According to the recent U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Summery for April, the economy continues to be strong with unemployment low at 3.4% and job growth reaching 253,000. In particular, the leisure and hospitality industry has seen an upward trend in employment as consumers spend more on travel and hotel stays, also a positive sign for the current economy.
  • The Federal Reserve again raised interest rates in April from 5% to 5.25%. In June, rates are likely to rise again in an effort to decrease inflation from the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report of 5% down to 2%.
  • On May 9, Federal Reserve President John Williams spoke to the New York Economic Club sharing that interest rates may continue to rise and that getting the CPI back to 2% could take as long as two years.
  • While there are still conflicting opinions, there is a general consensus that some level of recession can be expected by fall. Considering continued job growth and economic resilience despite increasing inflation and interest rates, a recession is likely to be smaller in scale.
  • Surprisingly, oil prices are lower than expected despite supply cuts by OPEC+ producers. This is considered to be due in part to lower demand as China reopens their oil production. However, warmer summer weather typically increases travel and demand, which will likely result in higher gas prices.


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Securities and Advisory Services offered through Harbour Investments, Inc. Member SIPC & FINRA.

When the market drops, some investors lose perspective that downtrends and uptrends are part of the investing cycle. When stock prices break lower, it’s a good time to review common terms that are used to describe the market’s downward momentum.


A pullback represents the mildest form of a selloff in the markets. You might hear an investor or trader refer to a dip of 5-10% after a peak as a “pullback.”1


The next degree in severity is a “correction.” If a market or markets retreat 10% to 20% after a peak, you’re in correction territory. At this point, you’re likely on guard for the next tier.2

Bear Market.

In a bear market, the decline is 20% or more since the last peak.2

All of this is normal.

“Pullbacks, corrections, and bear markets are a part of the investing cycle.”

When stock prices are trending lower, some investors can second-guess their risk tolerance. But periods of market volatility can be the worst times to consider portfolio decisions.

Pullbacks and corrections are relatively common and represent something that any investor may see from time to time in their financial life, often several times over the course of a decade. Bear markets are much rarer. In fact, between April 1947 and April 2022, there have only been 14 bear markets.3

A retirement strategy formed with a financial professional has market volatility factored in. As you continue your relationship with that professional, they will also be at your side to make any adjustments and help you make any necessary decisions along the way. Their goal is to help you pursue your goals.

1., April 30, 2022
2., September 23, 2022
3., September 23, 2022

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG, LLC, is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright FMG Suite.

Market Updates

  • While the Federal Reserve expects inflation to begin slowing down, it may still take a while as consumer spending tightens and job growth slows.
  • Credit also continues to tighten, which affects all rate-sensitive sectors, especially housing. Home sales have decreased by more than 30% over the last year.
  • The last Federal Reserve interest rate increase was announced March 22, from 4.75% to 5%, and there’s potential for an additional increase in May.
  • We still anticipate gas prices to increase as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) announced production cuts of 1.16 million barrels a day at the beginning of April in response to cuts in Russia production and China reopening. These cuts could lead to gas barrels costing as much as $100, which could raise gas prices into the range of $4-$7 per gallon this summer. The higher gas prices could potentially contribute to an increase in inflation and, ultimately, the Federal Reserve raising interest rates more.

Ask Triangle Questions

Q: What if the Federal Reserve doesn’t raise the interest rate?

A: If the Federal Reserve doesn’t continue increasing interest rates, it would be considered a positive announcement for financial markets. Regardless of what happens, Triangle Financial Services advisors continue to sort through all the noise and the ups and downs of interest rates to ensure we are proactively planning for and keeping an eye on your long-term financial goals and health. We always encourage you to call whenever you have questions or concerns!


Join us for the next Ask Triangle on Friday May 5th at 11 a.m. (CST)
Securities and Advisory Services offered through Harbour Investments, Inc. Member SIPC & FINRA.

Market Updates

  • The current U.S. economy is doing well with unemployment at a 50 to 60-year low and strong consumer spending. Manufacturing numbers are stagnant, supply-chain issues are freeing up and gas prices remain in a neutral price range.
  • However, consumer trepidation toward the stock market has caused continued stock market contraction. Despite a stable economy, U.S. consumers remain cautious and are taking a more conservative approach. Assumptions are that the Federal Reserve may continue to raise interest rates, perpetuating decreased bond valuation.
  • Continued volatility in the stock market is headlining media and political news.
  • Our research partners continue to push back timeline expectations for an economic recession, now anticipating a market swing in late 2023.
  • Money Markets and CDs continue to have high interest rates, and fixed annuity products have very slow processing times due to an influx in banking business. If you have concerns about this, please give us a call or come visit to discuss. We are always available to help you assess fees and terms for any financial product(s) you may be considering.
  • Unfortunately, we anticipate rising gas prices over the summer—up to $4-$4.50. Take these increases into consideration when creating your summer budget!

Ask Triangle Questions

Q: Why are gas prices predicted to rise again this summer?

A: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which supplies our gas, will decrease production in an effort to keep gas prices above the $80-$90 price point. This is due to a few factors: China re-opening and the increase in both competition and travel during summer months.

Q: What can be expected as far as the depth of a potential recession?

A: We expect the recession to be shallow, but it may also last for a longer time period. Despite contractions that began 12 months ago, the economy has remained resilient, so we don’t anticipate a recession as deep as the one we experienced in 2008.

Q: Can you explain a Charles Schwab stock report?

A: There are different ways to analyze a stock’s value, including tactical analysis and fundamental analysis.

Tactical analysis is not something our team does, but some of our research partners, like First Trust, provide it. Tactical analysis looks at data and algorithms, also referred to as algorithmic trading, which is similar to day trading with buy and sell triggers.

Fundamental analysis, the method Charles Schwab stock reports utilize, is a comprehensive look at anything that can affect a stock’s value. Fundamental analysis considers Beta (relative volatility compared to the Stock Market), dividends, price performance earnings, price history and the financial health of a company.

– A Beta of one means that the stock has similar volatility to the market index (e.g. a Beta of less than one in the S&P 500 equates to the stock being less volatile than the market index.) A low Beta is ideal when combined with a high dividend.
– Price performance is how the fund has performed and how it compares to its peers.

At Triangle Financial Services, we tend to enjoy mutual funds versus individual stocks because there is less volatility. We use fundamental analysis because we are always looking at the big picture for our clients—both short- and long-term goals. We are invested in the long-term outlook of your future, so we‘re unwilling to gamble with your hard-earned money and financial goals.


Friday April 7th Ask Triangle: ETFs and Mutual Funds

Securities and Advisory Services offered through Harbour Investments, Inc. Member SIPC & FINRA.
Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.