Market Updates.

  • We’ve been encouraged by recent economic forecasts and numbers that indicate a softer overall inflationary impact.
  • The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, and U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose to 199,000 in November, a slight increase from the payroll gain of 150,000 in October.
  • The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% over last month and is up 3.1% from a year ago. Wholesale prices remained unchanged in November, which is also an encouraging inflation indicator.
  • As we approach 2024, there is some optimism in the housing market — even though housing prices are still high and supply is difficult, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate declined to 7.07%, the lowest rate since July. Over the past week, mortgage applications increased by 7.4% and refinance applications increased by 19%.
  • In the December meeting, the Federal Reserve opted not to raise interest rates, remaining within the 5.25%–5.5% target range. Projections released by the Fed indicate an expectation of four rate cuts in 2024, aiming for the goal of a 4.6% rate by the end of 2024.
  • The Fed also shared an encouraging core personal consumption expenditures price index (core PCE) forecast indicating a decline of 2.4% in 2024 and 2.2% by 2025 to reach their 2% target in 2026. Previous forecasts indicated a decrease of 2.6% in 2024 and 2.3% in 2025.
  • We are wishing you a very Happy Holiday season and a prosperous New Year!

Sources

 

Join us for the next Ask Triangle!

Securities and Advisory Services offered through Harbour Investments, Inc. Member SIPC & FINRA.

Market Updates.

  • While we have observed some unexpected fluctuations in the economy recently, they don’t appear to be extreme, and the economy remains resilient and strong.
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics October report showed a cool down as U.S. nonfarm payrolls only increased by 150,000, less than expected, while the unemployment rate rose to 3.9%.
  • The October Consumer Price Index, which measures consumer price changes over time (excluding food and energy) was lower than anticipated with a two-year low of 4%.
  • This month, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by almost 9 basis points, and the 2-year Treasury yield has fallen nearly 10 basis points.
  • We saw an 0.8% decrease in import prices, along with a 0.5% decline for the Producer Price Index in October, the biggest drop since April 2020.
  • Although the Federal Reserve opted not to raise interest rates in October, and it is encouraging to see the pace of inflation begin to slow, the Fed is still committed to enforcing a restrictive monetary policy through rate increases to achieve a decreased 2% inflation rate.
  • Despite decreases in the jobs market, the potential slowing of inflation and interest rate hikes encourages us. No matter what, we won’t leave your financials up to chance or wait to see what the market does tomorrow. The Triangle Financial team always takes a long-game perspective, so you can rest assured we keep your future security in focus.

Sources

 

Join us for the next Ask Triangle!

Securities and Advisory Services offered through Harbour Investments, Inc. Member SIPC & FINRA.

Building wealth requires protection from the forces of wealth destruction.

Did you know that…

  1. Fifty-seven percent of American workers have no private short-term disability insurance.1,2
  2. Sixty-five percent of working people in the U.S. lack private long-term disability coverage.1,2
  3. Forty-eight percent of Americans have no life insurance.3,4
  4. Approximately 14 percent of American drivers are uninsured.5

If you ask a homeowner, replacing a roof is probably the least satisfying expense they will ever face. While the value of such an investment is obvious, it doesn’t quite provide the satisfaction of new landscaping. Yet, when a heavy rain comes, ask that same owner if they would have preferred nice flowers or a sturdy roof.

Insurance is a lot like that roof. It’s not a terribly gratifying expenditure, but it may offer protection against the myriad of potential financial storms that can touch down in your life.
The uncertainties of life are wide-ranging, and many of them can threaten the financial security of you and your family. We understand most of these risks – a home destroyed by a fire and a car accident are just two common risks that could subject you to an outsized financial loss.

Similarly, your inability to earn a living to support yourself and your family due to death or disability can wreak long-term financial havoc on those closest to you.

Insurance exists to help protect you from these forms of wealth destruction.

Some insurance (such as home or car) may be required. When it isn’t mandated (in the case of life or disability), individuals may be tempted to avoid the certain financial “loss” associated with insurance premiums, assuming the risk of much larger losses that are less likely to happen.

But insurance premiums aren’t a financial “loss.” They are designed to help protect you and your family as you build personal wealth.

1. BLS.gov, 2023
2. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Federal and state laws and regulations are subject to change, which would have an impact on after-tax investment returns. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation.
3. III.org, 2023
4. Several factors will affect the cost and availability of life insurance, including age, health and the type and amount of insurance purchased. Life insurance policies have expenses, including mortality and other charges. If a policy is surrendered prematurely, the policyholder also may pay surrender charges and have income tax implications. You should consider determining whether you are insurable before implementing a strategy involving life insurance. Any guarantees associated with a policy are dependent on the ability of the issuing insurance company to continue making claim payments.
5. AutoInsurance.org, June 22, 2023
The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright FMG Suite.

Market Updates.

Overall, the U.S. economy continues to be resilient.

  • Recent market fluctuation may be linked to the September jobs report, which was unexpectedly positive. Payrolls and hourly earnings increased, and the unemployment rate is slightly lower than expected. Job growth continues in the leisure and hospitality industries.
  • Although the Federal Reserve didn’t raise interest rates in September, we still anticipate additional rate increases before year end.
  • Consumers are selling out of long-term treasury bonds for liquidity, which makes sense with the 10-year treasury yield climbing to 4.88%. This is close to the level it was prior to the 2008 financial crisis.
  • Economists continue to push out the timeline for when a recession could occur. That, combined with the fact that the only thing that’s been consistent with the market is that it’s unpredictable, means we can’t forecast for certain how the market will perform tomorrow.
  • At Triangle Financial, we focus on a long-game perspective. Instead of making decisions based on what we think may happen tomorrow, we plan according to what we know right now. That way, you can rest assured that we are always keeping our eye on your future financial security.

Sources

Join us for the next Ask Triangle!

Securities and Advisory Services offered through Harbour Investments, Inc. Member SIPC & FINRA.

Reaching six figures is no easy feat. If you’re one of the hard-working few who have made it to this milestone, give yourself a pat on the back and celebrate. It can be tempting to feel like now that you’ve made it to the top of this mountain your financial worries are over. But before you go reaching for a bottle of champagne or calling a Ferrari dealer, consider this: the majority of Americans living paycheck to paycheck are from higher income households. In fact, out of 9 million Americans surveyed, 8 million of those are in higher income brackets.1

Now it’s more important than ever to take an active role in managing your money. Don’t equate earning six-figures with the ability to spend six-figures. Fortunately, there are several strategies that may help:

Steps to Take

There is no one-size-fits-all strategy for maximizing your new six-figure income. Every person is different, and some suggestions may mean more to you than others. But there are tried-and-true methods that can help point you in the right direction when it comes to your financial health.

Review Your Budget

Now that you are making six figures, you may be tempted to never look at your budget again. Resist this temptation and go back over your budget to make sure your spending is based on your overall approach. Feel free to adjust your line items to match any new priorities without going overboard. Careful preparation may help you know how much you can consider spending on that splurge item that you found online. Your renewed budget should be designed to follow your other new goals, knowing that your day-to-day matters are on firm footing.2

Target Unproductive Debt

Not all debt is bad, as much of it helps you both financially and in terms of your quality of life. But certain types of debt, like credit cards and personal loans, may be something you want to manage better. Set a goal for your unproductive debt, which may put you in a better overall financial position. Each penny you save can go toward other goals, such as vacations, travel or even retirement.

Build Your Emergency Fund

Life is full of the unexpected. Prepare by setting aside enough liquid money to cover three to six months of expenses. This reserve may help you manage through a job loss or an injury or illness that requires time to heal.

Don’t Forget About Taxes

Now that you’ve entered a new income bracket, your tax obligations may have changed. Take time to review your tax situation in an effort to avoid year-end surprises. This article is for informational purposes only and is not a replacement for real-life advice, so be sure to consult a tax, accounting, or human resource professional before modifying your tax-withholding strategy.

Don’t Forget Your Retirement Plans

If you haven’t started planning for retirement, your new income level may allow you to start setting aside money using a company-sponsored retirement plan. Initially, a financial professional may be able to provide guidance concerning the role a retirement plan can play in your overall financial strategy.

Move Forward Confidently

Restructuring your budget, managing debt, creating an emergency fund, and beginning to consider retirement may help ensure a more comfortable financial future. Even at a six-figure income, proactive preparations can help position you such that your money will eventually work for you.

1. Pymnts.com, January 2023
2. Forbes.com, March 29, 2022

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG, LLC, is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright FMG Suite.

What has upswings and downturns, troughs, peaks, and plateaus? Though such terms could easily describe a roller coaster ride, they are also commonly used to describe the business cycle.

The business cycle – also known as the economic cycle – refers to fluctuations in economic activity over several months or years. Tracking the cycle helps professionals forecast the direction of the economy. The National Bureau of Economic Research makes official declarations about the economic cycle based on specific factors, including the growth of the gross domestic product, household income, and employment rates.

Recovery & Recession

Business

An upswing, or recovery, occurs when the economic indicators improve over time. A recession occurs when the same indicators go through a contraction. A particularly long or severe recession is referred to as a depression.

Despite being called a cycle, it’s important to understand that the business cycle is not regular or even cyclical. Its pattern resembles the movement of waves, and those waves don’t consistently undulate at set, periodic intervals. Some recoveries have lasted several years, while others are measured in months. Recessions, too, can last for a number of years or be as short as a few months.

Moving in Waves

Moving in Waves

Stages of Cycle

So, how should investors look at information about the business cycle?

Investors who understand that the economy moves through periods of recovery and recession may have a better perspective on the overall cycle. During recovery, understanding whether the economy is at an early or late stage of the cycle may influence certain investment decisions. Conversely, during a recession, deciphering whether the economy is passing through a shallow or deep cycle may be influential as well.

The business cycle will transition from recovery to recession – and recession to recovery – over several months. Understanding that the economy travels through cycles may help you put current business conditions in better perspective.

The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. It may not be used for the purpose of avoiding any federal tax penalties. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG, LLC, is not affiliated with the named broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Copyright FMG Suite.
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